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22 septiembre 2021

The Primary Election Results Urge the National Government to Promote Economic Reactivation and Full Employment. Published on Cronista.com

Financial aid is not working; subsidies are not enough; the situation in which welfare program beneficiaries are is miserable; the economy is badly hit by the crisis and the pandemic; there are constant contradictions; the same public works are inaugurated twice or three times; the government promises reactivation and investment that never comes, and discusses the importance of genuine job creation while employment plummets. Voters have not been fooled, apparently, and the results are horrible and tend to get worse. Nobody in the current administration seems to grasp the seriousness of the situation, or know how to overcome stagnation, inflation, and decadence.

The surprising number of votes received by candidate Javier Milei, who praises an anti-system model, has been a real phenomenon particularly among young people in the southern part of the city of Buenos Aires; demonstrations and the rise of some left-wing sectors; and the success of the opposition in its different formats show that what matters is the results, and the results suffered by the general public have been unacceptable and decadent for at least the last twelve years.

Article by Julián A. de Diego published on Cronista.com on September 21, 2021

If the same parameters remain unchanged from now on, and financial aid increases, the result of the elections in November will confirm the defeat of the ruling party in the Primaries (PASO), with two more dramatic years ahead until the free and democratic presidential elections take place.

Social movements by and large demand work, because it is not possible to secure a place to live, decent housing, without regular income, and with a gradual process of constant improvement. Subsidies are not enough; some groups humiliate beneficiaries by forcing them to take part in demonstrations and political rallies, and promise those who are not receiving any welfare program that they will get one sooner or later.

With a new increase in the Minimum Living Wage, the intention is to adjust welfare programs, improve the minimum pension benefit, offer loans, and distribute occasional income that will vanish, just like any promise that is not supported by economic development or growth.

The most badly-hit sectors, such as hotels, tourism, industrial production in certain areas of the economy, do not have enough incentives to start rebuilding their businesses.

The State at its national, provincial and municipal levels keeps its gigantic structure, increasing staffing at the expense of a fiscal deficit that continues to grow, in relation to regular employees as well as service employees hired in breach of the rules of civil service at decentralized and autarkic agencies. In some cases, like in public education, there are more than three (3) appointed teachers for each actual position to be filled.

A fourth of the economy in general is undergoing a dramatic situation, facing bankruptcy, insolvency or both. Some emblematic brands and companies are included in this group.

A 25% of the economy begins to see a light on the horizon in the medium term, and starts to design a tentative scenario to return to the new normal through a transition.

There is another 25% of the economy that remains dormant, partially working, preserving their businesses and waiting for the best time to return to normal. Turnover fluctuates, but they are still profitable.

Finally, there is another 25% of the economy that is made up of companies of all sizes offering essential services, which even during mandatory quarantine (ASPO) have been able to operate at more than 50% of their regular installed capacity and now expect to reach 70% in the last quarter. This group includes companies producing food, sanitation and cleaning products, and mass consumption items in general; agricultural companies; meat processing plants; the pharmaceutical industry; private healthcare services; supplies for agriculture and agricultural equipment; and essential services like energy generation and distribution, gas distribution network, and passenger and freight transportation. This group also includes companies that have received State aid, or those that have managed to adapt to the vicissitudes of the market.

The Primaries (PASO) results show that people did not vote for the continuity of this failed administration or the continuity of the same instruments that have led the ruling party to lose this election across the country, including the Province of Buenos Aires. Even the most vulnerable and marginalized sectors have voted for a change to replace the tools that perpetuate poverty and indigence by other tools that promote growth, investment, and the creation of quality jobs.

For starters, contradiction should end, like in the case of the meatpacking industry. Regional economies should be relaunched, including wine-growing, citrus production, oil and gas, mining, livestock, farming and fishing, renewable energies, and exponential technologies. All of these industries can create prosperity in the short or medium term. The truth is that those who vividly insist on failure end up failing, and this would be a crucial mistake for this government in its remaining years in office.

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